Futurism: a beginner's guide

• A. To predict exactly what will happen in the future
• B. To explore possible, probable, and preferable futures in a systematic way ✓
• C. To determine which technologies will be commercially successful
• D. To preserve historical records of past predictions

Why: Futurism does not aim to predict a single certain outcome. It systematically examines a range of possible, probable, and preferable futures so that people can make better decisions in the present.

• A. Forecasting uses only mathematical models, while foresight uses only intuition
• B. Forecasting usually focuses on likely outcomes, while foresight considers multiple alternative futures ✓
• C. Forecasting is done by governments, while foresight is done by businesses
• D. Forecasting looks backward at history, while foresight looks forward

Why: Forecasting typically aims to identify the most likely outcome based on trends and data, while foresight broadens the view to consider several plausible futures and the forces that could shape them.

• A. Past, present, and future
• B. Probable, possible, and preferable ✓
• C. Local, national, and global
• D. Optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral

Why: Futurists often organize their thinking around probable futures (what is likely), possible futures (what could happen), and preferable futures (what we want to happen). This framework helps separate expectation from aspiration.

• A. It proves that the future is already determined
• B. It visualizes a range of futures narrowing or widening over time, helping people think beyond a single prediction ✓
• C. It measures the accuracy of past predictions
• D. It shows the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun

Why: The cone of plausibility is a visual model showing that the range of plausible futures widens the further out in time one looks. It reminds people that uncertainty grows over longer horizons and that many outcomes remain open.

• A. The future is fixed and can be known in advance
• B. Only experts with advanced degrees can contribute to thinking about the future
• C. The future is uncertain, but people can influence it through their choices ✓
• D. Technology alone will determine how society develops

Why: A central principle of futurism is that the future is open and uncertain, yet shaped by present decisions. This is why futurists emphasize scenarios and preferable outcomes, encouraging people to act deliberately rather than passively waiting.

• A. Astrology
• B. Haruspicy ✓
• C. Augury
• D. Necromancy

Why: Haruspicy was the Etruscan and Roman practice of examining animal entrails, especially the liver, to read omens. Augury was a related but distinct practice that interpreted bird flight and behavior.

• A. The Rand Corporation
• B. The Club of Rome ✓
• C. The Hudson Institute
• D. The Royal Society

Why: The Club of Rome brought together scientists, economists, and business leaders and published 'The Limits to Growth' in 1972, which used computer modeling to project long-term consequences of resource use and population growth.

• A. Backcasting
• B. The Delphi Method ✓
• C. Monte Carlo simulation
• D. Trend extrapolation

Why: The Delphi Method gathers opinions from experts through several rounds of anonymous questionnaires, with feedback between rounds, to converge on a forecast. It was developed at RAND Corporation in the 1950s.

• A. Adam Smith
• B. Thomas Malthus ✓
• C. Jean-Jacques Rousseau
• D. David Ricardo

Why: Thomas Malthus, in his 1798 'An Essay on the Principle of Population,' argued that populations grow geometrically while food supply grows arithmetically, making periodic crises inevitable. His ideas heavily influenced later forecasting debates.

• A. Forecasters rarely had access to data and tended to focus on the wrong technologies entirely
• B. Forecasters often extrapolated current trends linearly and underestimated how social, political, and technological change interact ✓
• C. Forecasts were deliberately made vague so they could never be checked
• D. Governments banned forecasting after the Second World War

Why: Many past predictions assumed that existing trends would continue unchanged, ignoring feedback effects, unexpected innovations, and social responses. This is a recurring lesson in the history of forecasting.

• A. A trend is always negative, while a weak signal is always positive
• B. A trend is a pattern already established and visible in data, while a weak signal is an early, ambiguous indicator of a possible future change
• C. A trend is predicted by computers, while a weak signal is predicted by humans
• D. A trend lasts only one year, while a weak signal lasts for decades

• A. Global smartphone sales increasing by 5% each year for the past decade
• B. A small community group in one city experimenting with repairing household appliances instead of replacing them
• C. Government statistics showing rising average life expectancy
• D. A well-documented increase in electric vehicle adoption across all major markets

• A. Because they are guaranteed to become mainstream within five years
• B. Because they offer early opportunities to observe, question assumptions, and prepare for possible alternative futures
• C. Because they are easier to measure with quantitative data than established trends
• D. Because they eliminate the need to consider uncertainty in planning

• A. Ignoring any observation that does not appear in mainstream news
• B. Looking for repeated occurrences across different domains and asking whether the signal reflects an underlying shift in values, technology, or behavior
• C. Relying only on the single most recent data point
• D. Accepting every unusual event as a sign of a coming revolution

• A. To predict exactly one future and plan only for that outcome
• B. To build a richer picture of possible, plausible, and preferable futures and to test strategies against them
• C. To eliminate all uncertainty from decision-making
• D. To focus exclusively on short-term financial forecasts

• A. To predict one single most likely future with high confidence
• B. To explore a range of plausible alternative futures and prepare for uncertainty
• C. To eliminate all uncertainty about what will happen
• D. To guarantee that organizations will avoid negative outcomes

• A. A specific decision made by a single leader
• B. A major trend or factor that shapes how the future may unfold
• C. A forecast that has already been proven accurate
• D. A minor detail that has little influence on outcomes

• A. SWOT analysis
• B. Break-even analysis
• C. A 2x2 scenario matrix
• D. Gantt charting

• A. Because a single forecast is always legally required
• B. Because the future is uncertain and multiple plausible paths help organizations stay adaptable
• C. Because more scenarios always produce more accurate predictions
• D. Because scenarios are meant to replace all other types of planning

• A. A scenario that is considered most probable by experts
• B. A low-probability, high-impact event that could dramatically change the future
• C. A routine trend that has been stable for decades
• D. A data source that is verified and never changes

• A. Recording historical events exactly as they happened
• B. Systematically exploring possible, probable, and preferable future developments ✓
• C. Predicting the exact date of major technological breakthroughs
• D. Preserving ancient traditions for future generations

Why: Futurism examines a range of possible, probable, and preferable futures rather than making single precise predictions, and it aims to help societies think ahead about the consequences of choices they make today.

• A. The gap between programmers and non-programmers in the workforce
• B. The difference in internet and technology access between groups of people ✓
• C. The separation between physical and virtual currencies
• D. The distance between Earth and digital satellites

Why: The digital divide refers to unequal access to computers, the internet, and related skills across populations, often based on income, geography, education, or age.

• A. Using machines or software to perform tasks previously done by humans ✓
• B. Creating automatic backups of computer files
• C. Connecting devices to the internet without user input
• D. Translating text between languages automatically only

Why: Automation describes the use of machines, robots, or software to carry out work that humans once performed, a central topic when considering effects on employment and productivity.

• A. Technological determinism ✓
• B. Social Darwinism
• C. Cultural relativism
• D. Economic protectionism

Why: Technological determinism is the view that technology drives social change; scholars debate this, with many arguing instead that society and technology shape each other in a two-way relationship.

• A. Single-variable regression analysis
• B. Scenario planning ✓
• C. Historical reenactment
• D. Random guessing based on past trends alone

Why: Scenario planning develops several plausible future narratives to help people prepare for different possibilities, rather than relying on one forecast.

• A. Trend extrapolation
• B. The Delphi method ✓
• C. Monte Carlo simulation
• D. Cross-impact analysis

Why: The Delphi method collects expert opinions anonymously over several rounds, with each round sharing aggregated feedback so experts can revise their judgments. This reduces the influence of dominant personalities and groupthink.

• A. To calculate precise probabilities for a single predicted outcome
• B. To systematically search for early signals of emerging change in technology, society, and the environment ✓
• C. To guarantee that a chosen future will occur
• D. To rank existing products by market share

Why: Horizon scanning is a systematic search for weak signals, emerging issues, and early indicators of change. It helps organizations notice developments before they become mainstream and inform strategy.

• A. Imagining several contrasting futures to test strategic choices
• B. Projecting past and present data patterns forward into the future, often using statistical methods ✓
• C. Asking a crowd of non-experts to vote on likely events
• D. Mapping how different events influence each other's likelihood

Why: Trend extrapolation assumes that existing patterns in historical data will continue, and it extends those patterns forward, often with curve fitting. It works best in stable conditions and can fail when disruptions occur.

• A. It eliminates all uncertainty from decision-making
• B. It produces one highly accurate prediction that can be trusted
• C. It prepares decision-makers for a range of plausible futures rather than betting on one ✓
• D. It requires no input from stakeholders or experts

Why: Scenario planning develops several plausible, internally consistent futures. This helps organizations test strategies across different conditions and build resilience, rather than relying on a single prediction that may prove wrong.

• A. Because the future is fully determined and only needs to be measured
• B. Because forecasts are only used for entertainment purposes
• C. Because complex systems contain uncertainty and surprises, so outcomes can only be assessed as more or less likely ✓
• D. Because mathematics cannot be applied to any social question

Why: Complex social, technological, and environmental systems are influenced by many interacting factors and unexpected events. Futurists therefore express forecasts as ranges of likelihood and revise them as new information arrives.

• A. Predicting exactly what technology will exist in 50 years
• B. Identifying the trends and driving forces that are shaping the present ✓
• C. Choosing the single most likely scenario and planning around it only
• D. Ignoring current data so your ideas remain original

Why: Good futures thinking starts from the present: identifying trends and driving forces gives you a grounded basis for exploring how the future might unfold. Exact prediction is not possible, and ignoring current data makes visions less credible.

• A. To guarantee that at least one scenario will come true
• B. To explore a range of plausible outcomes and prepare for uncertainty ✓
• C. To avoid having to make any decisions about the future
• D. To prove that the future is entirely unpredictable

Why: Scenarios help us explore a range of plausible futures, including different combinations of uncertain factors. This makes planning more robust because it prepares us for several possibilities instead of betting everything on one outcome.

• A. The future that experts agree is most probable
• B. A future state that you actively want to work toward and consider desirable ✓
• C. The future predicted by the most popular technology trend
• D. A future that is guaranteed to occur based on historical patterns

Why: A preferable future is a vision of what you value and want to achieve. Distinguishing it from probable or possible futures helps you clarify goals and then identify the actions needed to move toward them.

• A. Assumptions are always correct and need no examination
• B. Hidden assumptions can bias your vision and cause you to overlook alternative possibilities ✓
• C. Examining assumptions removes the need for any research
• D. Assumptions only matter in the past, never for the future

Why: Unexamined assumptions quietly shape conclusions and can make a vision narrow or unrealistic. Questioning them helps reveal blind spots and widens the range of futures you consider.

• A. Keeping the vision vague so it cannot be tested
• B. Breaking the vision into milestones with indicators that show whether you are moving toward it ✓
• C. Waiting until the future arrives before deciding what to do
• D. Sharing the vision only with people who already agree with it

Why: Milestones and indicators translate a long-term vision into concrete, measurable steps. This makes progress visible, allows course correction, and connects the future you imagine to what you can do now.